The Wise Pig and the Wolf’s Patience
The Allegory of the Wise Pig
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The Allegory of the Wise Pig
Let’s play pretend! Oh, come on now, it’s fun...! Pretend that you are the wisest of the three little pigs in the allegorical fairy tale The Three Little Pigs, and that you are looking for a block and brick supplier for materials to build your house.
Let’s say you have two choices—Acme Block & Brick or Wolf Co. Block & Brick. Acme is run by a consortium of pigs, while Wolf Co. is owned by Big Bad Wolf’s pack. Acme Block & Brick is 35% more expensive, so you buy from Wolf Co. The Wolf Co. blocks are high in mica, pyrite, and other iron sulphide compounds and have a weak cement mixture in their composition. How wise is the wise pig now...?
The Real-World Implications
Now, let's get into the meat of our little play session. Let's discuss science, soft and sharp power, economic diplomacy and coercion, area denial and defence, vulnerable supply chains, along with a plethora of other pertinent issues in today's world.
Science in My Allegory
Mica absorbs water, and water expands when it freezes. This scientific fact is the reason behind burst water pipes in winter. Apply that to the bricks in our little pretend session, and all the wolf and its cronies have to do is wait patiently in their lovely warm fur coats, and that house keeping the “wise” pig safe will crumble of its own accord.
The Dangers of Offshoring Manufacturing
For 50 years, Western nations have been offshoring their manufacturing capabilities to China, South Korea, and Taiwan. When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, we had no capacity to produce our own PPE. How wise was that little ham-fisted Western businessperson who decided this was a good, profitable, and security-focused endeavour?
We are no longer self-sufficient: in fact, we are highly dependent on foreign trade, intricate and vulnerable supply chains, etc., for even our most basic needs (PPE). Our global supply chains are complex, fragile, and subject to the winds of geopolitical angst. Confront China now with something that rubs them the wrong way and see what happens.
Case Study: Australia’s Wine Industry
Consider Australia’s wine industry: after blaming China for the COVID-19 outbreak, Australia faced retaliatory tariffs, crippling an industry that had become economically dependent on Chinese buyers. The wolf did not need to blow the house down—it simply stopped buying Australian bricks (wine).
The Tools of Economic Influence
Soft and Sharp Power
Soft and sharp power are tools in the wolf’s well-kitted-out toolbox. Western nations failed to recognise the siren’s song and strategic use of soft and sharp power by China in economic decisions.
China has masterfully wielded economic incentives (soft power) through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering infrastructure investments and giving some countries free PPE during the COVID pandemic in exchange for influence. At the same time, it has not hesitated to deploy sharp power, coercing and economically penalising nations when they oppose its policies (the Australian wine fiasco).
Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) as Leverage
Direct foreign investment (DFI) as economic leverage (AKA economic diplomacy or debt diplomacy) is another highly effective tool in the wolf's toolbox. China’s acquisition of geo-strategic assets, like Piraeus Port in Greece, has provided it with outsized influence in global trade.
What outwardly appeared as an innocent business transaction turned into a masterstroke of strategic geopolitical leverage, as China now controls key infrastructure that Europe depends on.
The Semiconductor Crisis and Taiwan Strait
Taiwan as the Keystone of Global Technology
The world’s most valuable semiconductor chips are produced in Taiwan, making it the keystone in global technology and high-tech military assets.
China’s growing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities and infrastructure around the East and South China Seas, and along the Taiwan Strait, threaten to block Western intervention should China decide to restrict access or invade Taiwan. If this scenario came to fruition, global technology supply chains could collapse overnight. Just as the “wise pig” ignored the warning signs of faulty bricks, Western tech industries have ignored their overreliance on Taiwan: a geopolitical hotspot that China considers its own territory.
The Semiconductor Stranglehold
The real problem is not just Taiwan's vulnerability—it is China’s lack of access to highly advanced, militarily strategic chips now denied to them. The U.S. and its allies have aggressively restricted China's ability to obtain or produce cutting-edge chips, which are critical for both economic competitiveness and military superiority.
The West has weaponized semiconductor exports, banning companies like ASML from selling China the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines necessary for manufacturing 5nm and sub-5nm chips. This has stunted China's ability to produce the most advanced processors, essential for AI, supercomputing, and military applications.
The Semiconductor War and Its Consequences
The Semiconductor War is already underway. This is why the U.S. is rushing to build alternative foundries in Arizona, Texas, Japan, and South Korea, but these projects take years. Meanwhile, China is ramping up its military capabilities to ensure that, if necessary, it can forcefully take what it cannot build.
If Taiwan were to fall into China’s hands, the West would instantly lose its technological edge. The consequences would be catastrophic:
Military disadvantage – The U.S. and NATO rely on these chips for missile guidance, satellites, and AI-driven defence systems.
Economic collapse – Everything from smartphones to cars to cloud computing would be disrupted.
Total realignment of global power – If China controlled TSMC, it could dictate who gets the best chips and who falls behind.
The Path Forward
The West has placed itself in a Semiconductor Trap, much like the Thucydides Trap, where the fear of a rising China leads to conflict. Unlike past power struggles, this time the battleground isn’t just military—it’s technological.
If the West wishes to regain resilience, it must reinvest in domestic production (reshore), diversify supply chains, and strategically decouple where necessary. Only then can it rebuild its house, this time with blocks that will stand the test of time. And—when we do—let's not build it on quicksand!
The wolf is patient: the wolf is hungry. The question is, will the pig wise up before its house crumbles and it becomes part of the wolf’s diet? Oh, I heard through the grapevine that a pack of wolves is laying out some tasty economic bait in Panama now.
References
Meraner, F.-L. R. (2024). China’s Anti-Access/Area-Denial Strategy. Retrieved from https://tdhj.org/blog/post/china-a2ad-strategy
Baskaran, G., & Schwartz, M. (n.d.). China Imposes Its Most Stringent Critical Minerals Export Restrictions Yet Amidst Escalating U.S.-China Tech War. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-imposes-its-most-stringent-critical-minerals-export-restrictions-yet-amidst
Massari, P., & Massari, P. (2024). Discussing the Thucydides Trap. Retrieved from https://gsas.harvard.edu/news/discussing-thucydides-trap
Allen, B. (2024). Beijing rules: China's quest for global influence. John Murray. Retrieved fromhttps://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/1529367816