The New Global Chessboard: Navigating the Geopolitics of Tech Supremacy

From Chip Wars to Rare Earth Dominance - Unveiling the Strategic Battle for the Future

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I'm reading an excellent book by Chris Miller, Chip War: it comes across as a high-stakes thriller, and the real-world ramifications are frightening. Advanced chips are the progenitor of Geopolitical and military power; China is winning the game now. 

My two-cents worth

Many of you have no interest in the topics I write about. However, I find them both fascinating and terrifying concurrently. My point of view is that we all should have some understanding of current global affairs. Global order is under threat of a hostile takeover by autocratic nations. And if I may be so bold, my analysis of current Global events, weaknesses and strategies are born out by many world-class strategic professionals: I am not whistling Dixie. That said …, Let's get on with it.

Add to the situation discussed in the book the chronic depletion of advanced arms in the West and China's advantages in mining and refining Lanthanides for cutting-edge weapons production. Sprinkle in some astute Geopolitical strategic duel-use investments, such as the acquisition of Piraeus Port in Greece, and you have the recipe for China to exercise a vast amount of coercive control on the West.

By duel use, I am referring to something that is used both for commercial and military purposes: Lanthanides are a group of 17 Rare Earth elements critical to advanced weaponry production.

Once you read Chris's book and understand the importance of rare earth materials, the 'scales will fall from your eyes', and you will understand the reasons behind the recent posturing over Taiwan and by both America and China.

Okay, so what you may say, what has that got to do with me? Right now, the West holds the balance of Geopolitical power: that position is slipping. Maintaining a position of neutrality, such as in Ireland, requires a world that respects the rule of law. I am not so sure that when the Geopolical centre of gravity shifts to China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other nations, the freedom to be neutral is possible. This scenario is not a dream or conspiracy; it is a real possibility in the near future.

Taiwan holds roughly 90% stake in the global supply of advanced Semiconductors, and China dominates Lanthanide mining, production and supply. Marry those two, and global power dominance will grow exponentially! The potential behind this strategic marriage is why China is so focused on upgrading its naval power and building anti-ship and anti-air defence missiles. 

The idea is to prevent American and other allies from gaining tactical superiority if China invades Taiwan.

There is a name for the previous tactics: Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategies. These tactics aim to prevent adversaries from projecting power into strategic areas. While not impossible, the risk of intervening in areas protected by these strategies is immense – especially in the era of Hypersonic weapons.

What are the implications to our freedoms if we lose the technological war? What happens if I choose to be a ‘tree hugger,’ a Goth, an Emo, a member of the LGBTQI+ community …?

I will not pontificate different strategies on what we can do about the situation. This piece was just a short explanation of my thoughts while reading a book. Suffice it to say, it's time to wake up!

References

Haeck, P., & Lau, S. (11 January 2024). On the ballot in Taiwan: The global microchip supply chain. Retrieved from https://www.politico.eu/article/taiwan-election-china-independence-microchips-industry-geopolitics/#:~:text=Over%20the%20past%20decade%2C%20Taiwan,of%20the%20global%20production%20capacity.

(21 December, 2023). Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-rare-earths-dominance-focus-after-mineral-export-curbs-2023-07-05/